Last week, the U.S. dollar hit new highs amid the release of market-moving events and then dropped some of its gains following the announcement of inflation figures. It remains to be seen as to what is in store for the U.S. dollar after this.
The core inflation rate came in at 2.1 percent as against the 2.2 percent expected by the analysts. This pulled the greenback down after it hit new multi-month high levels against both the pound and the euro. The pound lost ground following the Bank of England’s dovish interest rate decision, while the mixed data from euro-zone did not do too much harm the U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, abandoning the deal with Iran by Trump supported the oil prices. However, it did not trigger any other long-lasting market movements. The loonie enjoyed a positive sentiment till the release of the Canadian jobs report. The loonie lost ground against the U.S. dollar as the jobs report was disappointing. The New Zealand dollar was hurt by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s open door policy to cut down the interest rates.
The key economic data scheduled for release during the upcoming week includes the retail sales and housing data from the U.S. and GDP figures from elsewhere in the world. Here is an outlook on some of the key releases from around the world.
forex market outlook#1: Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (05/15/2018 Tuesday 01:30 GMT)
The Reserve Bank f Australia releases the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes two weeks after the announcement of the Cash Rate. It provides a detailed account of the most recent meeting of the Reserve Bank Board. It also provides in-depth insight into the economic conditions that impacted their decision on setting interest rates.
#2: U.K. Average Earnings Index (05/15/2018 Tuesday 08:30 GMT)
For the three months to February, U.K. workers’ average earnings figures were as follows:
Total earnings including bonuses increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent to £513 per week, the same rate as in the prior period. The reading for the period missed analysts’ expectation of 3.0 percent. The wages grew faster than inflation for the first time in a year in February. Average earnings grew in the construction, public, and financial services sectors, but eased in manufacturing; and wholesale, retail, and hotels and restaurants sectors.
Excluding bonuses, earnings grew 2.8 percent to £483 per week. It matched with analysts’ expectations. Earnings excluding bonuses grew the most ever since the three-month period to August 2015.
In real terms, average earnings including bonuses increased by 0.1 percent. This is the first increase in earnings in nearly a year. Average earnings excluding bonuses grew by 0.2 percent in real terms, recording the first increase ever since January 2017.
Forecast for average total earnings including bonuses for the three months to March 2018: 2.7 percent increase
#3: U.K. Inflation Report Hearings (05/15/2018 Tuesday 09:00 GMT)
The Governor of the Bank of England and many members of the Monetary Policy Committee testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament. The hearing lasts for a few hours and often creates market volatility. The direct comments on the currency markets are noted by investors. Traders care because the members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England vote for setting the key interest rates. During their public engagements, they often drop subtle clues as regards future decisions.
#4: U.S. Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales (05/15/2018 Tuesday 12:30 GMT)
In the U.S. retail sales grew by 0.6 percent on a month-over-month basis in March, recovering from the 0.1 percent decline in February. The reading for March exceeded the analysts’ expectation for a gain of 0.4 percent. Retail sales rose for the first time since November last year. Sales were bonus forex no deposit boosted mainly by motor vehicles purchases. For the first quarter of this year, retail sales rose by 0.2 percent.
Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. The rate of increase was the same as in the previous month. The reading for March matched with analysts’ expectations.
Forecast for April 2018: Retail Sales – 0.4 percent increase and Core Retail Sales – 0.5 percent increase
#5: Australia Wage Price Index (05/16/2018 Wednesday 01:30 GMT)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Australia’s wage price index increased by 2.1 percent (year-on-year) in the final quarter of last year, following the 2.0 percent growth in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected an increase of 2.0 percent.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, wages rose by 0.6 percent after registering a 0.5 percent gain in the prior period. Analysts had expected the wages to rise by 0.5 percent. While wages rose by 0.6 percent in the public sector, in the private sector it grew by 0.5 percent. Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 from the final quarter of last year: 0.6 percent increase
#6: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Speaks (05/16/2018 Wednesday 12:00 GMT)
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to deliver the opening remarks in Frankfurt at an event that the ECB is holding in honor of Vítor Constâncio. Markets often remain volatile during his speeches as traders look for interest rate clues.
#7: U.S. Building Permits (05/16/2018 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the building permits issued in the U.S. rose at an annual rate of 4.4 percent in March from the previous month to 1,379,000 as per revised data. It was reported earlier that the number of building permits issued was 1,354,000. Forecast for April 2018: 1,350,000 permits
#8: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (05/16/2018 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)
In the United States, crude oil stocks dropped by 2.197 million barrels during the week that ended on May 4 after registering an increase of 6.218 million barrels in the prior period. Analysts had expected crude oil stocks to decline by 0.719 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks also declined 2.174 million barrels, following an increase of 1.171 million barrels in the prior period. Analysts had expected gasoline stocks to drop by just 0.45 million barrels.
#9: Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan Speaks (05/16/2018 Wednesday 16:00 GMT)
Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Swiss National Bank, is scheduled to speak in Zurich on the Sovereign Money Initiative at the Vollgeld event. Markets often remain volatile during his speeches because traders look for interest rate clues.
#10: Australia Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (05/17/2018 Thursday 01:30 GMT)
Australia added 4,900 jobs in March. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed people in the country fell by 2,400. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate came in at 5.5 percent, which was the same as the downwardly revised figure for the prior month. However, the reading was in line with analysts’ expectations. Forecast for April 2018: Australia is expected to add 20,300 jobs and maintain the unemployment rate at 5.5 percent
#11: New Zealand Annual Budget Release (05/17/2018 Thursday 02:00 GMT)
The Hon. Minister of Finance Grant Robertson will present the Budget 2018, outlining the expected income and spending levels, borrowing levels, planned investments, and financial objectives. Traders care because government borrowing and spending levels have an impact on the economy. While increased spending creates work, borrowing levels affect the nation’s credit rating and indicate the underlying fiscal position.
#12: Canada CPI (05/18/2018 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In Canada, the consumer prices increased 0.30 percent on a monthly basis in March.
#13: Canada Core Retail Sales (05/18/2018 Friday 12:30 GMT)
Excluding autos, retail sales in Canada remained unchanged in the month of February after the reading for the prior month was revised upward to represent an increase of 1.0 percent. Analysts had expected core retail sales to increase by 0.3 percent. Higher sales at general merchandise stores and new car dealers mainly contributed to the gain in the month of February.